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WISE — Deck

Wise · WISE · LSE

Wise moves £145 billion across borders annually for 15.6 million customers, charging 53 basis points per transfer versus banks' 3-5% — and plans to dual list in the US to accelerate growth in the world's largest payments market.

1083p
Price
£11.1B
Market cap
£1.6B
Total income (FY25)
15.6M
Active customers
Listed July 2021 at 800p; peaked 1170p, fell 70% to 340p by Oct 2022, then recovered to 1083p today — roughly 35% above IPO after a round trip.
2 · The tension

Two P&Ls, one stock — which earnings matter?

  • Reported PBT is £565M. But £283M of that is excess interest income on customer balances — a rate-driven windfall that compresses when central banks cut. At 27x reported earnings, the stock looks reasonable.
  • Underlying PBT is £282M. This strips out the interest windfall and reflects the core payment business. At 39x underlying earnings, the stock is priced for sustained 15-20% compounding — which is exactly what management has delivered.
  • The market must choose. When rates fall and reported PBT drops 20-30%, does the market panic or see through to underlying growth? This is the single variable that drives the stock over the next 12 months.
The interest income is noise. The take-rate advantage is signal. But most investors read the headline.
3 · Money picture

Revenue tripled in three years while take rate fell 30%.

£1.6B
Total income +16% YoY
21%
Underlying PBT margin target: 13-16%
£333M
Underlying FCF 118% conversion
53 bps
Take rate (Q4) down from 67 bps

Wise cuts prices, volumes grow faster, and absolute profit rises — the classic penetration-pricing flywheel. Revenue grew 15% even as the cross-border take rate fell 14 basis points, because volume grew 23%. Underlying FCF conversion of 118% confirms the earnings are cash, not accounting.

4 · The moat

Eight direct payment connections and a 6x pricing advantage banks cannot match.

  • Infrastructure is the moat. Wise connects directly to domestic payment systems in 8 countries (including PIX, Zengin, InstaPay), bypassing SWIFT. Each connection reduces marginal cost and enables further price cuts — a self-reinforcing advantage.
  • 65% of transfers are instant. Up from 49% three years ago. Speed and price together create a product that banks cannot replicate without rebuilding their entire correspondent banking infrastructure.
  • Less than 0.5% of a £32 trillion market. Wise moved £145B of the £32T annual cross-border flow. The addressable market is 220x current volume. EU legislation against hidden FX fees is an accelerant.
5 · The catalyst

US dual listing changes the investor base, the liquidity, and the story.

  • Primary listing transferring to a US exchange. Shareholder circular published June 2025; vote expected July 2025; listing transfer targeted late 2025 or early 2026. This is the most important structural event since IPO.
  • Unlocks the world's largest investor pool. US institutional and retail investors — many currently unable to hold LSE-listed shares — gain access. This should materially improve ADV and could drive US index inclusion over time.
  • Aligns Wise with its biggest market opportunity. The US is home to 4,000+ banks and the largest cross-border payment volume globally. A US listing raises brand awareness with potential Wise Platform customers.
6 · Forensic check

Clean books, complex reporting — risk score 35/100.

35
Forensic risk Watch grade
0
Red flags
1.19x
3Y CFO/NI healthy conversion
£72.5M
SBC expense flat YoY, ~5% of income

No shenanigans detected. The main forensic concern is complexity, not manipulation: the dual P&L framework (underlying vs reported) creates investor confusion. Cash conversion is strong, revenue is transaction-based and verifiable, and the balance sheet is transparent under the customer-funds overlay.

7 · Bull and Bear

Lean Long, Wait For Confirmation — the flywheel is real but the stock needs the US listing to prove it.

  • For. Structural cost advantage at 53 bps vs banks' 3-5%, compounding with scale across a £32T market at under 0.5% penetration.
  • For. Underlying FCF conversion of 118%, zero acquisition dependency, and a management team that has met every medium-term target for 4 years.
  • Against. Reported PBT will fall 20-30% as rates normalize — the market may not distinguish between interest-rate noise and underlying weakness.
  • Against. At 39x underlying earnings, any deceleration below 15% income growth triggers multiple compression toward 25x — a 35% downside.
The bull wins on business quality; the bear wins on entry price. Wait for the US listing to confirm, or for a rate-cut-driven selloff to create a better entry. The condition that flips this: underlying income growth below 12% for two quarters.

Watchlist to re-rate: 1. US listing transfer timeline and initial US trading volume. 2. Underlying income growth rate in H1 FY2027 (first full post-rate-cut period). 3. Take rate vs volume elasticity as rates approach 40 bps.